Nissan LEAF

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Postby EricTheFred » Tue Mar 02, 2010 11:29 pm

Cognitive Gear (post: 1377831) wrote:I'm curious about this. The light research I have done in the area showed a rather large difference in cost between the two, with electric coming in significantly cheaper. Since I've only done light research, I'd love any insight you could provide.


(warning: wall of text ahead.) :)

The usual mistake is in calculating the two systems by different measures. Gasoline has x joules per gallon or whatever measure you choose and therefore can be equated to y kWh, and so people use that to equate so many gallons with so many kWh and then find electricity cheaper than gas.

This would work if you could run an (lossless) extension cord back to your house no matter how far away you drive, but that's not how you are going to use it. You're going to charge up a battery, then run your motor off the battery. There is a big loss there.

There is also a big loss when you use the gasoline in an ICE (internal combustion engine). The loss from ICE to wheel is about the same as the loss from EM (electric motor) to wheel, but the losses inside the ICE (how much energy goes to mechanical work vs. how much is lost to heat) is different than the loss in the EM (how much battery power goes to mechanical work vs. how much is lost to heat). I can't remember which is better, but I do know that the loss from battery to EM multiplied on the loss from meter to battery while charging is somewhat higher than the loss in gasoline energy in the ICE.

It used to be considerably higher, when EVs depended on lead-acid batteries and traditional motors, which is how gasoline motors put EVs out of business around the beginning of the 20th century. However, newer battery technologies (most Hybrids and EVs today use nickel MH batteries) and new EMs (generally rare-earth permanent magnet motors) have dramatically decreased the losses and changed the game. At this time the game is slightly in favor of the EVs until you take back what they lose for being heavier, at which point it is apparently about even.

The thing is, it is really hard to make these comparisons with certainty, because of wide variations in performance between various gasoline engines and and between various electric motors, and how they tend to be used as well. The guy who goes out and buys an EV today is often very green-conscious and not shopping for a Hummer or BMW, but something very low-impact that looks a lot like the little Isettas that meter maids and the occasional oddball drove when I was a kid (google it and read up.) (I shouldn't say 'oddball' too loudly though. My aunt Laurie had an Isetta.)

The equivalent gas vehicles mostly don't exist, although a few products like Smart are starting to close that gap. Still, not a lot of apples-to-apples comparisons are available, so a lot of the discussions are based on the estimated performance of paper designs that only exist in auto company design departments.
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Postby Cognitive Gear » Thu Mar 04, 2010 12:41 pm

EricTheFred (post: 1377837) wrote:(warning: wall of text ahead.) :)

The usual mistake is in calculating the two systems by different measures. Gasoline has x joules per gallon or whatever measure you choose and therefore can be equated to y kWh, and so people use that to equate so many gallons with so many kWh and then find electricity cheaper than gas.

*snipped for length*

Still, not a lot of apples-to-apples comparisons are available, so a lot of the discussions are based on the estimated performance of paper designs that only exist in auto company design departments.


I think I understand what you are saying, but wouldn't these problems be avoided by comparing the overall cost per mile? In other words, cost of refueling divided by average miles per fueling? This would give you a neat, directly comparable cost, regardless of how much energy is wasted between the fueling station and it's actual use, right?

Here's a report I found on the cost per mile. (links to a PDF) The chart in it seems to indicate that electric vehicles are far cheaper than their gasoline counterparts on a cost per mile basis.

(I want to note that I am in no way trying to get any sort of debate going. I just like to be thorough in my understanding when presented with new data that has the potential to dramatically impact my opinion about the value and readiness of a promising technology.)
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Postby mechana2015 » Thu Mar 04, 2010 12:46 pm

EricTheFred (post: 1377837) wrote: The guy who goes out and buys an EV today is often very green-conscious and not shopping for a Hummer or BMW, but something very low-impact that looks a lot like the little Isettas that meter maids and the occasional oddball drove when I was a kid (google it and read up.) (I shouldn't say 'oddball' too loudly though. My aunt Laurie had an Isetta.)


Steve Urkle drove an Isetta for as bit too!
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Postby Warrior4Christ » Thu Mar 04, 2010 2:15 pm

The Peel P50 is the smallest production car though - it's the future of motoring.
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Postby EricTheFred » Thu Mar 04, 2010 4:21 pm

Cognitive Gear (post: 1378091) wrote:I think I understand what you are saying, but wouldn't these problems be avoided by comparing the overall cost per mile? In other words, cost of refueling divided by average miles per fueling? This would give you a neat, directly comparable cost, regardless of how much energy is wasted between the fueling station and it's actual use, right?

Here's a report I found on the cost per mile. (links to a PDF) The chart in it seems to indicate that electric vehicles are far cheaper than their gasoline counterparts on a cost per mile basis.

(I want to note that I am in no way trying to get any sort of debate going. I just like to be thorough in my understanding when presented with new data that has the potential to dramatically impact my opinion about the value and readiness of a promising technology.)


Well, yes... except this is exactly what I am talking about concerning apples to apples. There's all kinds of problems here you aren't seeing.

Notice the MPG of the conventional vehicles selected. 22 mpg and 18 mpg. Yes, this is a pretty good median of our SUV-heavy passenger fleet. It is not representative of what a Mini would get (somewhere in the low 30s, according to my friends who drive them. I work in a large engineering department. You see more Minis and Hybrids in our parking lot than at the average Los Angeles mall.)

I mention Mini because one of the brightest stars on the same page where you found this data is an EV version of the Mini called the Mini-E, and it is your 4 mi/kWh line, and it is frankly, spectacular performance for a true EV (meaning not a 'neighborhood electric vehicle' which is a glorified golf cart).

You could compare this to a standard Mini Hardtop very favorably as long as you remember it isn't a true equivalent-- you don't have the rear seat space because that's where the batteries are, so it is strictly a two-seater, and while you and the spouse could easily do your grocery shopping in a standard Mini, the 400 lb maximum payload means you might be in danger of overloading the Mini-E.

More importantly, the number of Li-ion batteries that this car requires, (according to the fact sheet it cares 260 kg of batteries) is going to mean the cost is very high. The battery capacity is around 30 kWh, which at current Li-ion battery prices would be around $31,000 just to pay for the batteries, before you pay for the rest of the vehicle. Current Li-ion batteries are good for around three years, so this is a recurring cost you'd better be ready for. Basically we're talking about $50k+ for the first three years and $31K hits every three years thereafter. (Note: you will find claims of considerably lower 'projected costs'. These are preassuming a target cost very popular in the industry of $250 per kWh of deliverable energy. Currently the cost fluctuates between $1000 and $1200. The fluctuation is due to the very large percentage of the production capacity that is overseas and subject to fluctuating exchange rates. Nobody has really explained where the $250 number came from. It just sort of got out there one day.)

Finally, the real kicker: you can't have it. At the moment, the Mini-E is strictly a prototype. They claim they are making it available to 'select customers' in a 'pilot project' in the near future.

So basically, this is not the EV you are looking for today. It's more like a view of what we can expect in ten years or so, if we have the several serious breakthroughs planners are assuming in the effort to get those nasty Li-ion battery costs down. Actual EVs available today have nowhere near the same range or performance, because they depend on either Lead-Acid or Nickel-MH batteries, but they have much, much lower total operating costs than this.

The crowd favorite, the LEAF, is the only Li-ion that I know of, assuming that it really is still Li-ion when it goes into production. A lot of the power guys at work (TI does a lot of design work in the battery charger field, so I have lots of battery experts to consult) are skeptical that they really will be able to deliver at quantity due to production capacity issues. Some are saying Nissan may have to go Nickel-MH instead and accept the performance hits. Nissan, if they do keep this Li-ion, are pulling it off by making the recharge time very long, which drops the cost and weight of the batteries. (16 hours at 110 AC. If you can get your electrician to wire your garage for 220, you'll be able to cut this down to just overnight recharging, which I'm betting is what people are going to do after they find out they can't get home from work and plug in early enough to be ready for the next day.)

A couple others:
Available now, but they are slow as molasses and you're gonna have a hard time finding a dealer. I did locate one in Davis, CA. I think ZAP mostly survives on fleet sales:
http://www.zapworld.com/zap-xebra-electric-sedan

And my favorite:
http://www.ccds.charlotte.nc.us/~jarrett/EV/index.php3
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Postby Roy Mustang » Tue Mar 30, 2010 3:48 pm

Breaking news: Nissan prices all-electric Leaf at $33,600 in U.S.


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