Rocklobster's 2010 predictions for anime

[rocklobster]

Every year, I do this thread. I actually manage to get some things right, which is the sole reason I do it. So, here are my predictions for 2010:
1. FUNimation will be the only DVD company left.
2. Syfy (ugh) will discontinue their anime shows after they complete Monster.
3. Bleach will be the only anime on Cartoon Network.

[Bobtheduck]

So the obsession with Anime will mostly die and instead of maturing into a love for a wider variety of media, people will just hate animation again, thinking they've "grown out of it"

That's what those things mean to me. Well, the cartoon network thing is more because they're getting rid of anime because it's not popular anymore. They'll still have cartoons (obviously) broken into two groups: Kids and the late night college student crowd. I think anime has been waning in popularity in the US for a while. I still love it, though, or rather I love animation as a storytelling medium. I will again be in a minority. Meh.

Japan has been going backwards in some way in regards to their entertainment lately, the ones obsessed with 2d to the exclusion of real people are creating a stigma that animation may never recover from thre, and 2d Animation in the US hasn't grown any further than it grew in 1989. I don't have much hope for it, honestly.

[Lochaber Axe]

So the obsession with Anime will mostly die and instead of maturing into a love for a wider variety of media, people will just hate animation again, thinking they've "grown out of it"

That's what those things mean to me. Well, the cartoon network thing is more because they're getting rid of anime because it's not popular anymore. They'll still have cartoons (obviously) broken into two groups: Kids and the late night college student crowd. I think anime has been waning in popularity in the US for a while. I still love it, though, or rather I love animation as a storytelling medium. I will again be in a minority. Meh.

Japan has been going backwards in some way in regards to their entertainment lately, the ones obsessed with 2d to the exclusion of real people are creating a stigma that animation may never recover from thre, and 2d Animation in the US hasn't grown any further than it grew in 1989. I don't have much hope for it, honestly.

Hey don't worry. We'll just be getting Korean and Chinese shows in a few years. Has there been a successful animated adaption of a manwha or manhua?

[minakichan]

Hey don't worry. We'll just be getting Korean and Chinese shows in a few years. Has there been a successful animated adaption of a manwha or manhua?

Not a successful one, no. Also, don't know much about the Koreans, but Chinese animation sucks.

[Cloud500]

After seeing this(http://www.animenewsnetwork.com/buried-treasure/2007-10-25), I'm very hesitant to watch any Chinese animation...
I'll just have to learn Japanese and import DVDs if that's all that comes to English speaking countries, but I have no doubt that Funimation will still be around so there will be some anime being released here.

[Nate]

After seeing this(http://www.animenewsnetwork.com/buried-treasure/2007-10-25), I'm very hesitant to watch any Chinese animation...

That sounds just like my friend who said they'd never watch anime because they saw Speed Racer.

[KhakiBlueSocks]

Every year, I do this thread. I actually manage to get some things right, which is the sole reason I do it. So, here are my predictions for 2010:
1. FUNimation will be the only DVD company left.
2. Syfy (ugh) will discontinue their anime shows after they complete Monster.
3. Bleach will be the only anime on Cartoon Network.

[font="Trebuchet MS"][SIZE="4"][color="RoyalBlue"]1. If that were to happen, I would be very surprised--we still have a few companies out there like Bandai and Right Stuf][/SIZE][/font]

[Roy Mustang]

[font="Trebuchet MS"][SIZE="4"][color="RoyalBlue"]1. If that were to happen, I would be very surprised--we still have a few companies out there like Bandai and Right Stuf][/SIZE][/font]

Same here. I think people put too much doom and groom about US anime companies and they need to read more on why they went out.

Yes A.D. Vision was having some problems, but they never should have never had the Sojitz partnership. That is what really really hurt them and now because of that its Section23 Films.

I just hope that Funimation learns to not trust Sojitz Corporation as they some what have a partnership with them with the titles that bought from Sojitz.

The thing about Geneon USA is, Dentsu, the company that owns Geneon Japan and Geneon USA just pulled the plug on Geneon USA.

They wanted to have Geneon USA just license anime in the US and let someone else be the distributor. That fell apart and then they just pulled the plug on Geneon USA.

The Dentsu turns around and sells rights to other US anime companies.


[font="Book Antiqua"][color="Red"]Col. Roy Mustang
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[KhakiBlueSocks]

[font="Trebuchet MS"][SIZE="4"][color="RoyalBlue"]I also have a small prediction that I would like to make based off of an interview I heard on ANN's podcast this week with Right Stuf's founder Shawne Kleckner:

I predict that we will see more and more sub-only releases. Reason being is because depending on the title being released, some companies may or may not recoup the cost of creating an English dub. Better to create a sub-only product, release it, sell a bumper crop of disks to recoup the license fees and then some, and then make the choice on whether or not to re-release in English.

Yes, I know this will mean hearing less and less of our favorite English V/A's, but my thoughts are that it will help keep costs down for the production companies which very well might keep prices down on the end product.[/color][/SIZE][/font]

[blkmage]

[font="Trebuchet MS"][SIZE="4"][color="RoyalBlue"]I also have a small prediction that I would like to make based off of an interview I heard on ANN's podcast this week with Right Stuf's founder Shawne Kleckner:

I predict that we will see more and more sub-only releases. Reason being is because depending on the title being released, some companies may or may not recoup the cost of creating an English dub. Better to create a sub-only product, release it, sell a bumper crop of disks to recoup the license fees and then some, and then make the choice on whether or not to re-release in English.

Yes, I know this will mean hearing less and less of our favorite English V/A's, but my thoughts are that it will help keep costs down for the production companies which very well might keep prices down on the end product.[/color][/SIZE][/font]

On the other hand, you'll get to hear more of my favourite Japanese VAs!

More seriously, it makes tons of sense when there's a combination of western fans learning about, becoming familiar, and becoming fans of seiyuu and the demand for dubs continuing to go down in favour of faster release times and the like.

[Nate]

I don't think we'll see more sub-only releases, and I'll tell you why.

The first reason is because people love to talk about how official subs are "inaccurate" or censored, and that even if the releases are just subbed they're inferior subs to fansubs.

The second reason is that subbed anime just isn't going to be shown on TV. That immediately limits the number of people they can reach. Combine that with the number of people who flat out won't watch subbed anime, and it hurts them even more.

I know there are people who flat out won't watch dubbed anime, but that's offset by the dual language DVDs. People who don't like dubs still get the original Japanese, but with sub-only DVDs people who don't like subs wouldn't bother with them.

[Cloud500]

That sounds just like my friend who said they'd never watch anime because they saw Speed Racer.

I wasn't trying to come off as being close-minded about it. (I'd probably find something I'd like if I did some searching) I guess I should rephrase it to "I'm hesitant to watch any made solely for the purpose of marketing toys."

[Bobtheduck]

I don't think there are many Korean animated shows... That's because all the available Korean animators make animation for Japanese and American shows... Seriously, check the credits of any anime or recent (last 20 years) work of TV animation... More Parks than a national recreation listing.

Korean animators are willing to work for basically nothing, while their American and Japanese counterparts aren't...

Notice I didn't say there were NO works of Korean animation. Just very few.

[Nate]

I guess I should rephrase it to "I'm hesitant to watch any made solely for the purpose of marketing toys."

I don't understand this logic. At all.

Probably because right now, I'm watching Shinkenger, which is a show made solely for the purpose of marketing toys. And Shinkenger has some of the deepest characters, most involving storylines, and best choreography of any show I've ever seen. I'm blown away by how fantastic this show is, and it was made solely for the purpose of marketing toys.

I really cannot comprehend in the slightest how a show being based on selling toys is bad. It's all up to the writers and directors on how to do the show. If they're trying to make a quick buck and don't care about the show, then yeah, it's gonna suck, but that's not in any way related to the fact that it was made to sell toys.

To further drive my point home, DearS is a pretty awful anime. I tried watching it and it was just bad. Horribly bad. And guess what? It wasn't made to sell toys.

So I've named one show that was based on selling toys that was good (Shinkenger) and one NOT based on selling toys that was awful (DearS). If you'd like, I can name tons more shows based on toys that are good and tons more not based on toys that suck.

Yes, I realize you can list shows based on toys that suck and ones that aren't and are good, but as I said. That merely proves that a show is good or bad on its own merits, not on the fact that it's made to sell toys. You can have good writers and directors on a show, or bad ones, and good ones can take a silly toy line and make it deep and interesting, and bad ones can drive even an original concept into the ground and make it suck (Ikkitousen did that wonderfully, another show not based on toys by the way).

So when someone can give me a good reason why they wouldn't watch a show based on a toy line, I'll accept this line of thought. "Some shows based on toys aren't good therefore they're all terrible" isn't a good reason, any more than "One woman I met was really annoying to me therefore all women are really annoying."

[Derek_Is_Me]

I don't know y but I can see everything on this list coming true. HMMM......T_T

[Blitzkrieg1701]

I definitely think we're going to see anime's presence on American TV dwindle, but it'll be offset by more and more companies getting their act together and making material available legally online. It's the direction the entertainment industry in general is starting to go, anime's just got a head start.

[MasterDias]

The second reason is that subbed anime just isn't going to be shown on TV. That immediately limits the number of people they can reach. Combine that with the number of people who flat out won't watch subbed anime, and it hurts them even more.

Well, yeah, but anime has been on a significant decline on American TV the past few years. I mean, anime has pretty much been finished on Cartoon Network for awhile between Toonami folding and CN passing over Naruto Shippuden of all shows. Adult Swim doesn't seem to be especially enthusiastic about picking up more titles. Very few shows are going to get a TV run now outside of niche stations like Funimation Channel and The Anime Network. Dubbing does increase sales, but not necessarily enough to even break even, much less make a profit.
Rocklobster is taking a way more pessimistic view than I would take however. The only US Anime company I'm particularly concerned about is Bandai.

[Davidizer13]

3. Bleach will be the only anime on Cartoon Network.

There's plenty of anime left on Cartoon Network. It's just on at ridiculous times, like early mornings on weekdays and really, really late nights on Saturdays. It's getting less and less worth it to stay up/get up and watch it at those times, though, what with the advent of the Internet and other on-demand services, and the movement of anime fans to follow those developments. Anime will be a permanent fixture on Cartoon Network, though in the foreseeable future, it'll probably shift to shows like Yu-Gi-Oh!. Pokemon, and the like, which are still on in the early-morning slots.

[Roy Mustang]

There's plenty of anime left on Cartoon Network. It's just on at ridiculous times, like early mornings on weekdays and really, really late nights on Saturdays. It's getting less and less worth it to stay up/get up and watch it at those times, though, what with the advent of the Internet and other on-demand services, and the movement of anime fans to follow those developments. Anime will be a permanent fixture on Cartoon Network, though in the foreseeable future, it'll probably shift to shows like Yu-Gi-Oh!. Pokemon, and the like, which are still on in the early-morning slots.

I think he means new anime, I hope. Because your right, there is still anime on Cartoon Network and Adult Swim, which is the stuff they show on Sat night.

Adult Swim and Cartoon Network are now like two networks on one channel now anyway. So it would be Bleach would be the only anime on Adult Swim and not Cartoon Network.

2. Syfy (ugh) will discontinue their anime shows after they complete Monster.

2. You might be right about that one. Maybe if they put their anime in a different time slot, Saturdays perhaps, running with Adult Swim's time slot, that would help put them back in the game, but I really don't see "Ani-Monday" going very long in 2010.

About Syfy one. Syfy has been fine with the numbers that Ani-Monday has been doing. Also, Syfy has never have or plan to go head to head with Adult Swim and their showing of anime. This is why, it will stay as long as they are happy with the format and the ratings they get.

This is a smart move by Syfy and never planning on trying to beat Adult Swim. If they had that kind of thinking, then Ani-Monday wouldn't have last this long.

This why they would never move it on a Saturday night. They did try putting anime on a Tuesday night and it didn't go that well and Syfy is not about to put it on a Friday, when they have shows doing well in that time slot.

[font="Book Antiqua"][color="Red"]
Col. Roy Mustang[/color]
[/font]

[Cloud500]

I don't understand this logic. At all.

Probably because right now, I'm watching Shinkenger, which is a show made solely for the purpose of marketing toys. And Shinkenger has some of the deepest characters, most involving storylines, and best choreography of any show I've ever seen. I'm blown away by how fantastic this show is, and it was made solely for the purpose of marketing toys.

I really cannot comprehend in the slightest how a show being based on selling toys is bad. It's all up to the writers and directors on how to do the show. If they're trying to make a quick buck and don't care about the show, then yeah, it's gonna suck, but that's not in any way related to the fact that it was made to sell toys.

To further drive my point home, DearS is a pretty awful anime. I tried watching it and it was just bad. Horribly bad. And guess what? It wasn't made to sell toys.

So I've named one show that was based on selling toys that was good (Shinkenger) and one NOT based on selling toys that was awful (DearS). If you'd like, I can name tons more shows based on toys that are good and tons more not based on toys that suck.

Yes, I realize you can list shows based on toys that suck and ones that aren't and are good, but as I said. That merely proves that a show is good or bad on its own merits, not on the fact that it's made to sell toys. You can have good writers and directors on a show, or bad ones, and good ones can take a silly toy line and make it deep and interesting, and bad ones can drive even an original concept into the ground and make it suck (Ikkitousen did that wonderfully, another show not based on toys by the way).

So when someone can give me a good reason why they wouldn't watch a show based on a toy line, I'll accept this line of thought. "Some shows based on toys aren't good therefore they're all terrible" isn't a good reason, any more than "One woman I met was really annoying to me therefore all women are really annoying."

Again, I'm sorry and wasn't trying to sound like I hate everything.

[blkmage]

I don't think we'll see more sub-only releases, and I'll tell you why.

The first reason is because people love to talk about how official subs are "inaccurate" or censored, and that even if the releases are just subbed they're inferior subs to fansubs.

The second reason is that subbed anime just isn't going to be shown on TV. That immediately limits the number of people they can reach. Combine that with the number of people who flat out won't watch subbed anime, and it hurts them even more.

I know there are people who flat out won't watch dubbed anime, but that's offset by the dual language DVDs. People who don't like dubs still get the original Japanese, but with sub-only DVDs people who don't like subs wouldn't bother with them.

The thing is, the type of people who talk about how official subs are inferior to fansubs aren't the type of people who like dubs or buy things anyway.

I also don't think that TV broadcast matters for the types of releases that would get sub-only releases. Only super-popular shows get on TV and those are the ones that aren't the series generally under consideration for sub-only releases.

So I don't think more sub-only releases means less dubbed releases. I think it means that, with lower production costs, licensors can look at a wider range of titles than they originally would have.

[Phantom_Sorano]

Jason...your predictions are.....so morbid.

What about Ranma 1/2 being completed?

[rocklobster]

OH, I think that'll happen, Soran. With Inuyasha being completed, why wouldn't they do the same with Ranma?

[minakichan]

On toy-marketing: The Japanese market for licensed character goods is ten times the Japanese market of anime DVDs. Anime NEEDS to sell merchandise in order to survive. It's not just crappy kids' anime either; adult consumers can still buy phone straps, figures, games, pencil boards, whatever. (Queen's Blade anyone? That sells tons of "toys.")

On sub-only released: For once, I'm going to disagree with Nate; this last year showed an increase in sub-only releases, and I think it's going to continue that trend. A lot of niche titles just don't have the market to warrant a dub, and honestly, I don't know about the rest of the world, but out of all of my anime-watching friends, I know ONE who watches the dubs. It's not so much elitism about dubs as it is that a lot of people just plain aren't interested in the dub-- the idea of watching it never occurs to them. Furthermore, niche titles tend to be more popular with those who aren't at the center of the American fanbase. If, as the American companies suggest, fansubs are really so prevalent that they can hurt the industry, then clearly the market to target is viewers of fansubs, not dub audiences.

[Nate]

Again, I'm sorry and wasn't trying to sound like I hate everything.

Didn't say you were, and I wasn't trying to sound confrontational (I tried my best to not be insulting or sarcastic or anything in my post). I was just stating that I don't understand the logic behind being suspicious of a show just because it's used to sell merchandise, and my reasons why I don't understand it.

So I don't think more sub-only releases means less dubbed releases. I think it means that, with lower production costs, licensors can look at a wider range of titles than they originally would have.

Okay, maybe, but then my question is who would they market them to? Most fans would have already seen fansubs of the series anyway most likely, and I'm sure there are honest fans out there who would buy the DVDs because that's legal...but it seems that that segment of the population would be too small to turn a profit anyway, even if you did cut out the dubbing.

But in the end I dunno. I mean I see your point but I still think that if a series isn't big enough that a dub would interest people they probably wouldn't license it in the first place anyway. I could be wrong though. *shrug*

[blkmage]

First of all, companies do license things that aren't surefire huge hits. This is the only possible reason I can think of for licenses like Dragonaut: shows that are despised by both fansub watchers and the Japanese. So it's not a stretch to imagine that they license things that aren't mega-hits all the time, but can do well with a more niche audience.

Without hard numbers and trends, it's hard to determine whether a given show is financially successful and what how many sales it takes to make a show successful. My current belief is that it's not only honest fans that buy things, but really hardcore ones: the ones like their bretheren in Japan who buy and collect everything.

There are two types of fansub watchers who don't buy things, especially for the more obscure titles under consideration: the ones who think things are too expensive and the ones who will never buy anything. I think that if a sub-only release is going to noticeably reduce prices, it will be enough to entice enough people to purchase it. There's no point in trying to get people who won't buy it anyway except to try and monetize in a different way (like, say, Crunchyroll).

Again, this is all my theorizing without any hard numbers to guide me at all, so maybe there are just too few people willing to buy things.

[Nate]

My current belief is that it's not only honest fans that buy things, but really hardcore ones: the ones like their bretheren in Japan who buy and collect everything.

Ohhhh like the Japanese guys who bought the Endless Eight DVDs. I see what you mean now.

Plus I see what you're saying about licensing things that aren't a hit. I mean Big O was really popular here in the US but it wasn't so well-received in Japan so...yeah. I guess Cowboy Bebop is probably the same way (not saying it's unpopular in Japan but I'd be willing to bet it's way more popular here).

[ST. Attidude]

I think that the declining popularity of anime on American TV (and perhaps just the US in general) can be summed up by two words:

The Internet

[minakichan]

Yeah, my anime club buys like $1K of anime a semester, and it's nearly all stuff that we saw and liked from fansubs. The only anime I've ever bought were things I liked from fansubs. I'm not going to shell out money for stuff I don't know anything about =/ So I think there's a market, and not even only for crazy people who buy Endless Eight.