Big Anime News!

[The Doctor]

Hey all,

I was browsing Ain't It Cool News (website that updates you with entertainment news; anime, movies, tv, manga, etc.) and they had this article quoting an executive of a Japanese Station talking about how the global market for anime is now saturated and that this, combined with the global recession, may force Japan to withdraw it's global anime operations and only sell it to the Japanese again.

Here is the news completely quoted from aintitcool.com:
"Anime News Network has summarized
Keisuke Iwata, the executive in charge of TV Tokyo's AT-X animation channel and its animation division, lecture on anime's road to survival

Speaking at "Anime Business Forum + 2009" event at Digital Hollywood's University of Digital Content in Tokyo, Iwata predicted "the global marketplace for Japanese animation will shrink from 2010 onward."


In Iwata's view, there is no room for growth since Japanese animation has reached the saturation point in the global marketplace. Due to the worldwide recession and illegal net distribution, Iwata concluded that the North American marketplace is battered, the European marketplace is in grave condition, and the Japanese companies cannot rely on the Middle East, Asia, and other regions as potential new marketplaces. He added, "as it stands, we may have to go back to the way it was in the past — back to selling Japanese animation only to the Japanese marketplace." In order to survive in the current adverse climate, TV Tokyo is proceeding with new initiatives that include animation on American video-distribution sites."

Here is a direct link should you want to see for yourself:

http://www.aintitcool.com/node/39949#thebusiness

What do you all think?

Personally, this is only one executive and I have read about one anime company in Japan that's bucking the current trend and making money. Let's wait and see...

[Shao Feng-Li]

I think bittorrent client downloads are gonna increase.

[LadyRushia]

Yup. Selling anime to Japan only won't stop people from putting it on the internet. In fact, it would make downloads okay because we would have no legal way of getting it in the first place.

[Tsukuyomi]

I think bittorrent client downloads are gonna increase.

I really hate to say it, but yeah... >_> And, also other means of piracy... ^__^;

I'm sure things will start looking up Hopefully, they don't make any hasty moves just yet <_>

[Shao Feng-Li]

I watch it online anyways, so...

[ChristianKitsune]

XD that would kind of be terrible. But in all seriousness it serves us right in a way. :/ I mean it is sort of the fault of those who download illegally, even though companies have begged and pleaded with us to stop. They sort of predicted this could happen.

I hope it doesn't happen though, that would be kinda annoying. ._.;

[Shao Feng-Li]

I think a lot of people wouldn't have bought anime DVDs and such anyways because they're so stinkin' expensive. That is, even if there were no online sources, I still wouldn't buy it, lol

Hmmm... I sure hope this won't apply to manga... I hate reading manga online and love owning the books.

[The Doctor]

I think the anime industry should learn from Steve Jobs (Founder and CEO of Apple; currently on hiatus due to poor health). The music industry had/has a real problem with illegal downloading. Steve Jobs argued that the solution wasn't to destroy the downloading, but offer a legal way to purchase music and entertainment online for a very cheap price. Thus iTunes was born and is currently the No. 1 music store in the world in terms of sales.

If they plan on trying to follow this same formula and provide anime and all other assorted goodies online for a good price, that will help a whole lot.

Just my 2 cents...

[ChristianKitsune]

[quote="The Doctor (post: 1288500)"]I think the anime industry should learn from Steve Jobs (Founder and CEO of Apple]

They are already doing this, in fact Funimation is streaming almost the entire series of Ouran online for FREE. and they are also streaming the first 19 episodes of Romeo x Juliet in subtitles too.

[Shao Feng-Li]

I think that would be a good idea. Not to mention, it's not unusual for downloads to come with malicious programs and such that'll harm your machine.

[Fish and Chips]

I'm pretty sure this is mainly concerning attempts to globalize the Anime market, verses how the market has functioned in local distribution in previous years. Basically the studios will have to lower their commercial aims to just Japan, unless they can find a cheap method of producing shows for overseas audiences. American license companies should still be able to purchase individual titles for localization.

Really, it's more how things are not going to change rather than how they would. That is if my understanding is correct.

[MasterDias]

Except, I'm not sure that ad-supported and pay-to-download online streaming really generates that much online revenue. At least, I doubt it generates enough to really matter in the long run.

I think a lot of people wouldn't have bought anime DVDs and such anyways because they're so stinkin' expensive. That is, even if there were no online sources, I still wouldn't buy it, lol

This was true enough in the past. But the market for individual single DVDs is basically dead in North America outside of a few series from Bandai and Funimation. And the companies have started releasing new series in half-season boxsets that are much more economical.
Also, if you factor in Bandai's Anime Legends boxsets, Funimation's Viridian collections, and the relatively inexpensive economy boxsets from ADV and Media Blasters' back catalog...and online discounts, you can get a lot of complete series for anywhere between $25-$60...about the same price range as a video game or what one would have had to pay for 1 or 2 individual anime dvds several years ago.

I'm not singling you out or anything so don't take this the wrong way. I was just making a general point that buying anime is much more inexpensive than it once was.
The days of $250 boxsets are long over.

[minakichan]

Illegal fansub downloading is the devil.

I've said this again, but OK.

Viewers watching anime legally in the most common method in Japan contribute just as much financially to the industry as fansub downloaders.

You pay for a month of cable in Japan, and that money does not go to the anime studios' pockets. They make their money from stuff like broadcasting licenses and merchandising, and a little bit from DVDs-- which most viewers in Japan do not buy. Why don't they? For one, the exorbitantly high Japanese DVD prices, but more importantly they watch it for free on the TV just as we do on the computer.

It's not the fact that it's free that's a problem to the industry, it's the fact that there's only one distribution model that isn't accessible to most people, and most people will not buy a DVD for television series that they haven't seen (look at aything in American markets). The anime merchandise market is TEN TIMES the size of the anime DVD market, and if you don't have free advertising for it (a cheap or free distribution model), you miss out on that. Without this cheap or free distribution model, you also lose out on a huuuuge opportunity for advertising revenue.

On top of that, to blame the decline of the anime industry on fansubs is naive and myopic. How on earth does the fansubs effect explain the fact that Toonami and anime have totally declined on Cartoon Network, which is even pulling its free online streaming program? There are plenty of factors on both sides of the Pacific that contribute to this. For example, most anime are based on manga, and manga is on the decline (just pay attention to the news; TONS of magazines have seen decreases in sales and some have even gone belly-up) because teenagers are shifting their leisure attention to cell phones. Otaku culture has had a negative stigma since the Miyazaki Tsutomu case, but it recovered after Densha Otoko; however, the positivity from that phenomenon has been on the decline due to the decreasing interest in Densha and other frightening incidents such as murders and chaos in Akihabara. Also, most anime is made specifically for a domestic market, with only a few counterexamples, and domestic revenue is the greatest initial concern, so a financial decline in the anime industry reflects domestic issues.

The Crunchyroll-led model is possibly the best existing new solution for the problem, but there are still problem that it's not going to fix. This "news" isn't particularly surprising.

[Shao Feng-Li]

Except, I'm not sure that ad-supported and pay-to-download online streaming really generates that much online revenue. At least, I doubt it generates enough to really matter in the long run.



This was true enough in the past. But the market for individual single DVDs is basically dead in North America outside of a few series from Bandai and Funimation. And the companies have started releasing new series in half-season boxsets that are much more economical.
Also, if you factor in Bandai's Anime Legends boxsets, Funimation's Viridian collections, and the relatively inexpensive economy boxsets from ADV and Media Blasters' back catalog...and online discounts, you can get a lot of complete series for anywhere between $25-$60...about the same price range as a video game or what one would have had to pay for 1 or 2 individual anime dvds several years ago.

I'm not singling you out or anything so don't take this the wrong way. I was just making a general point that buying anime is much more inexpensive than it once was.
The days of $250 boxsets are long over.

All true, all true; but, everything's expensive when one has no job*. Food/rent>anime, heh.

EDIT: *And is trying hard to get one but no one is hiring :<

[MasterDias]

For example, most anime are based on manga, and manga is on the decline (just pay attention to the news; TONS of magazines have seen decreases in sales and some have even gone belly-up) because teenagers are shifting their leisure attention to cell phones.

I've read about this (and its supposed causes, which range from declining birth rates to kids obsessed with video games), but these things come in cycles. I don't think I'd worry about it quite yet. The only major casualties I'm aware of are Monthly Jump and Young Sunday, the former of which was basically replaced with another magazine.

Otaku culture has had a negative stigma since the Miyazaki Tsutomu case, but it recovered after Densha Otoko; however, the positivity from that phenomenon has been on the decline due to the decreasing interest in Densha and other frightening incidents such as murders and chaos in Akihabara.

But is this really relevant to DVD/merchandise sales? Japanese otaku are really resilient, no matter who stereotypes them as "nerdish, pervert, nutjobby, shutins."

[blkmage]

But is this really relevant to DVD/merchandise sales? Japanese otaku are really resilient, no matter who stereotypes them as "nerdish, pervert, nutjobby, shutins."

Actual otaku might not mind, but more casual buyers who don't want the stigma attached with being an otaku? They probably wouldn't mind buying less.

[minakichan]

The only major casualties I'm aware of are Monthly Jump and Young Sunday, the former of which was basically replaced with another magazine.

Oh no, dozens of magazines have been canceled completely. Monthy Jump and Young Sunday are big and important enough that we at least have Jump SQ and some former Young Sunday titles have gotten new homes, but a lot of small phonebooks-- especially for more niche audiences-- have kicked the bucket.

But is this really relevant to DVD/merchandise sales? Japanese otaku are really resilient, no matter who stereotypes them as "nerdish, pervert, nutjobby, shutins."

Golly gee, I hate to use such a tacky anime as an example, but Nogizaka Haruka no Himitsu totally reflects this phenomenon-- a closet otaku (particularly a girl) who wouldn't be caught dead in Akihabara by herself.

[Shao Feng-Li]

Liking/enjoying animation from Japan seems complicated...

[MasterDias]

Oh no, dozens of magazines have been canceled completely. Monthy Jump and Young Sunday are big and important enough that we at least have Jump SQ and some former Young Sunday titles have gotten new homes, but a lot of small phonebooks-- especially for more niche audiences-- have kicked the bucket.

The key word in my statement was major.
I can't imagine most of these niche magazines were notable enough to particularly worry about the general state of Japan's manga industry. Not that I'm saying declining sales are a good thing regardless.

Is there anywhere that lists phonebook cancellations of the last few years? I'm not doubting you, but I am curious as to the actual statistics.

[ShiroiHikari]

[quote="minakichan (post: 1288556)"]I've said this again, but OK.

Viewers watching anime legally in the most common method in Japan contribute just as much financially to the industry as fansub downloaders.

You pay for a month of cable in Japan, and that money does not go to the anime studios' pockets. They make their money from stuff like broadcasting licenses and merchandising, and a little bit from DVDs-- which most viewers in Japan do not buy. Why don't they? For one, the exorbitantly high Japanese DVD prices, but more importantly they watch it for free on the TV just as we do on the computer.

It's not the fact that it's free that's a problem to the industry, it's the fact that there's only one distribution model that isn't accessible to most people, and most people will not buy a DVD for television series that they haven't seen (look at aything in American markets). The anime merchandise market is TEN TIMES the size of the anime DVD market, and if you don't have free advertising for it (a cheap or free distribution model), you miss out on that. Without this cheap or free distribution model, you also lose out on a huuuuge opportunity for advertising revenue.

On top of that, to blame the decline of the anime industry on fansubs is naive and myopic. How on earth does the fansubs effect explain the fact that Toonami and anime have totally declined on Cartoon Network, which is even pulling its free online streaming program? There are plenty of factors on both sides of the Pacific that contribute to this. For example, most anime are based on manga, and manga is on the decline (just pay attention to the news]

I just wanted to quote this whole post for emphasis.

I personally think it's Japan's own fault that they aren't making more money on anime. If they'd price their DVDs better, they'd make more, and if they didn't charge so much for licenses, they'd make more. Then the American companies could make more, because they could charge more reasonable prices and still make something of a profit.

Also, I hate to open this can of worms but the American anime fanbase in general is being a bunch of retards right now. Do we really expect ADV, who was in some serious trouble not too long ago, to still produce dubs for niche series? Dubs cost A LOT of money. I think going to sub-only half-season boxsets for niche stuff is the only way they're going to make it out of this mess alive. And boycotting something because it doesn't have expensive extra content (yes, dubs are extra content) is pretty foolish if we want the R1 industry to stick around.

[S.M.O.G.]

If they stop selling anime in america, I'm gonna boycott...

I would buy more, I just cannot afford it most of the time. But then I guess I could get the now-known-as-pirated-but-would-then-be-perfectly-legal stuff with a clear concince...

Better find a straw hat.

[blkmage]

I personally think it's Japan's own fault that they aren't making more money on anime. If they'd price their DVDs better, they'd make more, and if they didn't charge so much for licenses, they'd make more. Then the American companies could make more, because they could charge more reasonable prices and still make something of a profit.

I remember reading a really good piece (that I wish I could remember the link for) about this. Essentially, the Japanese were treating DVDs in foreign markets exactly the same way they'd done it in Japan, as things that only otaku would buy. They were viewed as collectors' items and they were priced as such. After all, who would buy a DVD set of a TV show? Only people who really, really liked it already.

Also, I hate to open this can of worms but the American anime fanbase in general is being a bunch of retards right now. Do we really expect ADV, who was in some serious trouble not too long ago, to still produce dubs for niche series? Dubs cost A LOT of money. I think going to sub-only half-season boxsets for niche stuff is the only way they're going to make it out of this mess alive. And boycotting something because it doesn't have expensive extra content (yes, dubs are extra content) is pretty foolish if we want the R1 industry to stick around.

Anime is the only instance I can think of that has a demand for the dubbing of a foreign product. I can't imagine demands for the dubbing of, say, a live action show or film. Why should anime be any different?

[Fantasy Dreamer]

[quote="ChristianKitsune (post: 1288488)"]XD that would kind of be terrible. But in all seriousness it serves us right in a way. :/ I mean it is sort of the fault of those who download illegally, even though companies have begged and pleaded with us to stop. They sort of predicted this could happen.

I hope it doesn't happen though, that would be kinda annoying. ._.]

I agree. But if you like it enough to burn your own CDs from downloads, why can't you just support it and buy it? I understand, money is tight for everyone (accepting rich kids who's daddy buys them a new car AND pays their tuition), but getting a job and saving won't kill anyone.

Oh well... And yes, it would be annoying.

[minakichan]

The key word in my statement was major.
I can't imagine most of these niche magazines were notable enough to particularly worry about the general state of Japan's manga industry. Not that I'm saying declining sales are a good thing regardless.

Are you kidding? Young Sunday was huge. Tons of classics came out of that mag and some titles made piles of money, especially with transmedia deals. Mag Z and Dengeki Gao aren't huge by any stretch of the imagination, but many tie in titles from popular anime ran in there. I'm not even talking about the countless jousei and seinen mags that got cut because in the West we underestimate their appeal <s>since only the teenybopper stuff ever gets licensed here</s>. To say that they're "not major magazines" is like saying that Jump is the only manga magazine that people ever read in Japan. No freaking way.

Anime is the only instance I can think of that has a demand for the dubbing of a foreign product. I can't imagine demands for the dubbing of, say, a live action show or film. Why should anime be any different?

Yeah, ditto. No one lines up to ask for autographs of the random white guy who voices over Jackie Chan in his early HK films. The only exception I can think of is when Disney animation gets foreign dubs because they often hire popular and talented actors from the respective countries (like say, getting Jackie Chan on Mulan). I mean likewise, I love Miyano Mamoru but there's really no reason that to go out and fangirl him for his Percy in the Harry Potter dubs o_O

[MasterDias]

Anime is the only instance I can think of that has a demand for the dubbing of a foreign product. I can't imagine demands for the dubbing of, say, a live action show or film. Why should anime be any different?

This mindset has gone back quite a while however. Even back in the VHS-era, companies stated that dub-only DVDs would typically outsell sub-only DVDs by a wide margin.

And the recent outcry over Clannad, despite it being a niche (though still reasonably high-profile) show that only will appeal to a fan with particular tastes proved to me that dub-watchers can be just as vocal as sub-watchers when they want to be.
Also, keep in mind that the "casual anime fans," the group that doesn't post on message boards/go to cons/etc. but is responsible for making shows like Afro Samurai and Batman: Gotham Knight bestsellers certainly prefers dubs.

I would be disappointed myself if companies stopped producing dubs, as I enjoy them a good amount as well.

Are you kidding? Young Sunday was huge. Tons of classics came out of that mag and some titles made piles of money, especially with transmedia deals.

I think we got our wires crossed, as I never said (or never meant to say) Young Sunday wasn't a huge magazine. I understand perfectly well it had a lot of hits.
On the other hand, Shogakukan has something like 8 other seinen magazines still running, although I realize some are more niche than YS was and they don't (necessarily) target the same age segment.

But, regardless, I won't argue anymore, as I only really know general details about it.

[ST. Attidude]

[quote="ChristianKitsune (post: 1288488)"]XD that would kind of be terrible. But in all seriousness it serves us right in a way. :/ I mean it is sort of the fault of those who download illegally, even though companies have begged and pleaded with us to stop. They sort of predicted this could happen.

I hope it doesn't happen though, that would be kinda annoying. ._.]

I agree with you, Kitsune...
That's why I think I'm going to start buying DVDs...

(Not to change the subject, but I just noticed that everyone's avatar on this thread, with the exceptions of mine, MasterDias and blkmage, has somebody looking to the right. )

[Fantasy Dreamer]

I agree with you, Kitsune...
That's why I think I'm going to start buying DVDs...

(Not to change the subject, but I just noticed that everyone's avatar on this thread, with the exceptions of mine, MasterDias and blkmage, has somebody looking to the right. )

Good idea. I always try to buy my favorite animes and support them! (is not bragging)

(And also, our right or the avatar's right? XD)

[nanikore]

I don't think there is a cause for major concern.

Remember the last Japanese recession. I remember in those days people made remarks like "We will never see something like Ah My Goddess made into a TV series, because the industry is in a dump".

This was years before the industry recovered, and AMG came to Japanese TV.

There is no crystal ball.

[minakichan]

http://www.animenewsnetwork.com/news/2009-02-23/japan-kodansha-reports-its-largest-annual-loss-ever <-- To show that the decline of anime isn't just because of fansubs: huge loss for Kodansha, a Japanese manga company.

Yes, of course this is related to the recession (what isn't?), but Kodansha is a publisher, not a merchandiser, so it's less affected by the decline of purchasing power than most of the anime-related goods industry would be. Manga is a low-cost form of entertainment (the reason that manga became so popular early on is because it was so cheap), so I would say that the size of the loss perhaps does have to do with the decline of manga sales regardless of the economy.

But that's just armchair economics.